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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the top if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.