How The Strange Season Broke the Traditional Coach of the Year Mould.
Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.
On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest upset.
Yet the current race is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's competing with several other elite coaches.
Below is how the projected ballot should look.
5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record
Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.
The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.
The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.
In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical season!
Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short here.
4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.
What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.
Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.
Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.
The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3
Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.
Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.
Still
