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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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